An Indirect Simulation-Optimization Model for Determining Optimal TMDL Allocation under Uncertainty
نویسندگان
چکیده
An indirect simulation-optimization model framework with enhanced computational efficiency and risk-based decision-making capability was developed to determine optimal total maximum daily load (TMDL) allocation under uncertainty. To convert the traditional direct simulation-optimization model into our indirect equivalent model framework, we proposed a two-step strategy: (1) application of interval regression equations derived by a Bayesian recursive regression tree (BRRT v2) algorithm, which approximates the original hydrodynamic and water-quality simulation models and accurately quantifies the inherent nonlinear relationship between nutrient load reductions and the credible interval of algal biomass with a given confidence interval; and (2) incorporation of the calibrated interval regression equations into an uncertain optimization framework, which is further converted to our indirect equivalent framework by the enhanced-interval linear programming (EILP) method and provides approximate-optimal solutions at various risk levels. The proposed strategy was applied to the Swift Creek Reservoir’s nutrient TMDL allocation (Chesterfield County, VA) to identify the minimum OPEN ACCESS
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